A Number's Game: The Swing State of New Jersey?

On this week’s episode of “A Number’s Game with Ryan Girdusky,” I discuss the possibility of New Jersey becoming America’s next swing state. My special guest for this week’s podcast was the great Scott Pressler, who’s spent the last few years registering new Republicans nationwide.

First, I want to talk about how the idea of swing states has changed over the last few years.

Since 2000, the number of states that have continuously swung back and forth has stayed relatively stable. Only nine states are considered consistent swing states, and 41 states vote for the most part the same.

This may seem like a lot, but compare that to the number of states that consistently voted one way from 1972 to 2000.

The idea that America has fewer swing states with every election has become the norm. That was until 2024, when several states were removed from the map: Florida, Ohio, and Iowa can no longer be considered swing states and are solidly Republican.

Deep blue states moved very far right. New York moved 11 points towards Republicans, California by 9 points, Massachusetts by 8 points, Rhode Island by 7, and Illinois by 6. Still, even though these states had some pretty dramatic swings towards Trump, none can be considered swing states. California, for example, would have to repeat that swing two more times even to be considered competitive because it’s so blue.

That takes us back to New Jersey, which moved 10 points to the right in the last election. Kamala Harris performed as well in New Jersey as Trump did in Arizona. If Arizona is a swing state, then isn’t New Jersey?