A Red Florida and a Blue Country
How Pollsters Think The Electoral College Map Shakes Out
The New York Times/Siena poll released on Tuesday had some pretty startling numbers; Kamala Harris had taken the lead nationally but was losing the critical Sunbelt States of Florida and Texas by larger margins than Biden had in 2020.
In the Sunshine State, Trump is beating Harris by a 13-point margin, a drubbing not witnessed in Florida since George HW Bush's 22-point landslide in 1988. The New York Times poll also showed that Trump won Texas by a modest seven-point victory, a bit larger than the state he won in 2020.
According to these pollsters, how can Trump be ahead in some states but still lose the popular vote and the Electoral College?
The theory being offered by some is that 2024 will look more like the last midterm election and less like the two presidential. They believe that the electoral college bias, which has favored Republicans over the previous two decades against the popular vote, is far less severe than it used to be because Republicans are performing significantly better in some big states thanks to a surge of support thanks to improved considerably support among minorities and a continued trend towards Democrats among college-educated whites.
This shift creates Republican sinks, where Republicans far outperform their previous electoral history. Deep blue states are moving to the right but still too far left to be considered swing states.