An Error in 2020 Could Decide 2024

The Census Could Change the Election

The election is coming down to the wire, and polls are showing essentially a tied race, with Vice President Kamala Harris holding a narrow margin in the Rust Belt and Donald Trump leading polling and early voting in the Sun Belt.

Some veteran political analysts are even surprised at how well Republicans are doing in Nevada, where Democrats typically have an enormous lead going into election day. Still, they currently find the GOP with a 31,000-vote advantage. Nevada political guru writer Jon Ralston said that with almost 40 percent of the vote, Harris will need to win independents by 5-7 points to swing the state in her direction. It is not impossible, but it is not where she wants to be, just eight days out.

Democrats are also having heartburn at the declining black vote throughout the Deep South. The famous “Souls to the Polls” operation in Georgia and North Carolina has been a bust, and black participation in the Peach State is at its lowest since 2004.

Decision Desk HQ’s Michael Pruser tweeted out this helpful graph showing that the black vote is 26.15 percent, compared to 27.34 percent in 2020 and closer to the 26.22 percent it hit in 2022.

So, for argument's sake, let's say Trump manages to sweep the Sun Belt while Harris wins the Rust Belt and one congressional district in Nebraska. That means the Democrats would secure the 270 electoral college votes needed to hold the White House for the next four years.

I’m not saying this will happen; I’m just saying it could. And just for argument's sake, let’s say it does. Then, a little-known error in the 2020 Census will have changed history.