Are Republicans Blowing the Midterms?
Democrats Find Hope But Is It Real?
After months of presuming a ‘Red Wave’ was a sure thing, political forecasters are now predicting that Democrats could not only hold the Senate but reduce their losses in the House. They’re also predicting the Republicans may not end up gaining a single governor’s mansion during one of the best election cycles in nearly a decade. Even members of the GOP in Congress are getting anxious that they’re going to win a bare minimum majority in the House.
So could this year be a repeat of 2002, where the party out of power fails to make substantial gains? Here’s the current lay of the land as I see it. This post will only be about the House, I’ll do the Senate in a separate post though they’ll have many overlapping themes.
First let’s start with what the experts are saying. Below are the predictions by election analysts Nate Silver, Decision Desk HQ and JHK Forecast’s predictions for the House of Representatives:
While both analysts believe Republicans will win back the House of Representatives, the number of seats the GOP wins in the midterms continues to shrink. Silver’s original prediction had Republicans winning closer to 240 seats. As of right now, the next GOP speaker would have just a dozen members to hold the majority into 2024, not exactly a massive consensus.
These predictions are based in large part about three things: opinion polls, fundraising, and President Biden’s approval ratings.