Data of the Week

Data that you should know

So much data came out this week that, rather than a normal newsletter, this week features some of the important data from the Census and the Cooperative Elections Studies.

Democrats in Retreat

The Cooperative Elections Studies found that Americans have identified more with Democrats than any other party for the last 20 years. That net advantage, however, is shrinking to almost nothing, from D+9 in 2007 to just D+2 today.

Those who are or lean Democrat have shrunk from 49 to 40 percent, while Republicans remain stagnant at 38 percent. Those who identify with either party have grown substantially from 13 to 22 percent.

Since 2016, Democrats have lost support with every age demographic aside from Gen-Z. They’ve lost 8 points among millennials, 14 among Gen X, 10 among Baby Boomers, and 13 among the Silent Generation.

They’ve also lost substantially with every race since 2007, aside from Asians. Support among whites has fallen by 10 points, Latinos by 19 points, and blacks by 24 points.

Aside from Asians, the only group to see the support for Democrats increase is among white men with a college degree. That’s because a majority of white men with a college degree are millennials and Gen-Z. Black men without a college degree have run away from identifying with Democrats the most, falling by 36 points.

Religious Revival

According to the Cooperative Election Studies, the population of Americans who identify as agnostic, atheist, or nothing in particular continues to shrink for the third consecutive year. At its peak, 36 percent of Americans said they were non-religious; that number has shrunk to 31 percent after remaining stagnant for half a decade.

I asked Ryan Burge, who follows this information closely, about young Americans identifying as Catholic, a phenomenon that many churches are reporting. He found that the population of Gen-Z Americans has risen from a low point of 14 percent back in 2021 to 19 percent, though more identify as Protestant.