Dems Slip in Garden State

Democrat Voter Advantage Continues to Decline

Devoted readers of my Substack know I have a slight obsession with the upcoming New Jersey legislative elections. Yes, it’s probably because I’m from the neighboring state and keep a closer eye on the Northeast, but it could also point to a significant trend.

Unlike many other states, abortion is not on the ballot in November. However, New Jersey made abortion a right in its state constitution back in 2022, and Republicans aren’t running on overturning that law.

More importantly, it’s one of the only states in the country where more voters are choosing to join either the Republican or Democrat party rather than being independent.

During the Trump years, Democrats dominated voter registration. In January 2016, Democrats led Republicans in voter registration by 690,000. By the 2020 election, there were over 1 million more registered Democrats than Republicans. Like many other states in the region, the Republican Party is a shadow of its former self from 20 years ago. But when Trump went back to Mar-a-Lago and COVID lockdowns shut down the state, something began to change, and voters in every region of the state Republicans began to outregister Democrats.

The new May 2023 numbers show that Democrat voter advantage has fallen from 1,080,367 on January 1st, 2021, to 998,023 on May 1st, 2023.