Eight Million Early Votes Can't Be Wrong
Deep Dive on Early Vote
As I write this post on Wednesday, October 16th, just 20 days before the election, more than eight million people have voted in the 2024 presidential election. So, is there anything we can see about the early vote and how it can tell us about the general election?
First and foremost, it's essential to say that early votes are not predictors of future outcomes. A vote on election day, in-person early, or by mail is counted the same. With the COVID pandemic in the rearview mirror, many people who voted by mail in 2020 have opted to vote in person. So, at some point, we’re comparing apples and oranges, but there are still some lessons to be learned.
I also want to point out that all politics is national when looking at these states. How voters act in one state is very likely how they act within the region or across the country. You have to use your best judgment when deciphering what it all means regarding trends.