How You Go From a Tied Race to a Kamala Victory

A Set of Two Different Stories Polls

Two narratives are emerging from polling: one that Kamala Harris is on her way to a Biden-sized victory, winning the national popular vote by four points or more. The other is that the election is within a two-point margin, with some polls suggesting that Trump could win the electoral college and post his best numbers with the popular vote.

So, how do we go from Trump’s best margin to a Kamala victory depending on the poll?

To determine the disparity between these two scenarios, I split the most recent public polls that made their exit polls available.