President Trump and Vice President Vance’s meeting with Zelensky has spurred a new genre of fantasy that I like to call Eurostaglia, the belief that the countries of Europe are as they once were in the 1940s.
In this liberal fantasy, the leaders of Germany, France, Italy, and the U.K. look at the U.S. has fallen prey to a steward leader who thinks of himself as king that reforms to defend his mantle of neoliberal democracy but, before the world of Western men is lost, they raise their swords to end tyranny in our time and stand up against at authoritarianism and Ukraine will be free.
Yes, that is a play on The Lord of the Rings, but I have no Harry Potter or Star Wars references to work with.
Still, you get the point: liberals like to believe that Europe has the willpower and ability to fight a war like they did during World War II and that the NATO alliance is more of a partnership and less like a welfare program.
For Europe to manage a serious counteroffensive and ground war with Russia over Ukraine would force them to backpedal on nearly all the initiatives that have taken place over the last seven decades.
First, let’s consider the fact that Europe doesn’t have sufficient standing armies or young men to counter Russia.
Let’s start with the fact that the largest standing armies come from countries not known for their military prowess: Italy, which lost a war to Ethiopia; France, where the joke writes itself; Spain, whose last military conflict was against themselves; Poland, once again, it writes itself; and Greece, whose great military victories happened before the birth of Christ.
If you add the U.K., which has a standing army half the size of Greece, your military is still smaller than the United States’.
Even when you look past the number of men, France has fewer military planes than Egypt, and they have the most. Poland has about as many tanks as France, the U.K., and Spain combined, and they have 10,000 fewer tanks than Russia. Most of those countries (except France) mainly depend on China and Russia for their significant industries and oil.
But… but… Ryan, they’ll draft more men!
Who? Continental Europe’s birthrate started falling below replacement levels in the 1960s. Only the former Soviet States, where childless adults were taxed for not having children, and Ireland, which held on to Catholicism the longest, managed to avoid the fate of empty cradles.
Rather than grow their population by encouraging or punishing families for not having children, the leaders of Europe thought to import them from the third world, assuring their citizens that they’d be fully British, German, or Swedish within a generation. Well, the numbers are out, and they don’t look pretty.
In Germany, just 1.6 percent of their military servicemen are Muslim, Italy has just a few thousand Muslims in their military, and in the U.K., twice as many British Muslims joined ISIS as his majesty’s armed forces. France is one of the few exceptions, given that it had mandatory military service until 1996 and has a long history of bringing non-French soldiers into its military.
So, they don’t have the manpower because they stopped having children, and the descendants of immigrants are not keen on fighting and dying for the borders of Ukraine.
But, Ryan, these NATO countries sent troops to help us fight in Afghanistan during Operation Enduring Freedom…
Yes, that’s true, but look at the size of their active militaries capable of joining the war effort. 608 from Bulgaria; 35 from the Czech Republic; 750 from Denmark; 250 from Estonia; 4,000 from France; 2,500 from Germany; 3,000 from Hungary; 4,200 from Italy; 268 from Lithuania; 2,500 from Poland; 145 from Portugal; 90 from Slovenia; 2,500 from Spain; and 5,700 from the U.K.
Now, it’s great that they served and I honor those who lost their lives, but it’s nothing compared to the 100,000 Americans who were in Afghanistan and another 160,000 who were in Iraq.
You’re not comparing Apples to Oranges; it’s like comparing apples to a pickup truck.
The problem with the European military reflects the situation in general. They act as though they are still the empires of old without any of the pesky consequences.
They sent their industrialization to China during the early part of the 21st century, just like America did; they outsourced military protection and innovation to the United States and cheap labor to workers of the third world.
They don’t work, don’t produce babies, refuse to innovate, create major companies, don’t protect their young women who are victims of grooming gangs, deport radical jihadist preachers, or defend their borders. They have spent decades indulging in guilt to the point that they are a neutered continent, capable of unlocking greatness but too busy taking siestas.
Many nations in the EU depend on their handouts and are poor nations with a handful of wealthy cities attached to them that keep the entire continent afloat.
A poll from Gallup found that most Europeans don’t believe their countries are worth fighting for.
Even worse for liberals is that many Europeans don’t support the idea of sending troops to Ukraine. Recent polls found that most Italians, Lithuanians, Poles, French, and Spaniards opposed sending troops, and other polls found split results even if they were there after a ceasefire.
For Europe to be even in a position to enlist and defend nations like Ukraine from being invaded, they would need to reindustrialize, start having European babies, abandon their green new deal economy, and begin acting like they have a future in this world.
Liberals in America like to believe that Europe is as it once was, but their overindulgence and neoliberal project have cost them too much. Could they achieve the status of being real leaders on the world stage again? Possibly—if a lot changed.
What’s going on in Ukraine is a horror show, Putin is a monster, and yet Europe must accept that if they want a future for Ukraine, they must end the war sooner than later. President Trump seems to understand that much more than our allies across The Atlantic.
For now and for the foreseeable future, America alone is the indispensable nation, and Donald Trump is driving this bus, whether they like it or not.
Great piece!
English leaders don’t care if their borders are protected and their country remains English.
French leaders don’t care if their borders are protected and their country remains French.
German leaders don’t care if their borders are protected and their country remains German.
But all three of those countries’ leaders are very concerned that Ukraine’s borders are protected and that Ukraine remains Ukrainian.