Mid-Atlantic Changes 2012-2020
How the Mid-Atlantic is moving politically, what are the consequences
I’m going to continue the series I started late last year about the political realignment that took shape from 2012 to 2020, focusing on which areas show the greatest promise for conservatives and national populists across the country.
This month, we will look at the New York City metropolitan area and Mid-Atlantic states.
Long Island, once considered a Republican bastion back in the 1980s, has since slipped away from the GOP during the 1990s. Trump became the first Republican to win Suffolk County in two consecutive elections since Ronald Reagan. During the 2021 local elections, the GOP flipped the county District Attorney and three seats in the county legislature, giving them the majority for the first time since 2005. Nearby Nassau County also saw gains for Republicans locally, but Trump lost ground slightly from Romney. New York is set for massive redistricting, but given the trends, it could be possible for the GOP to maintain at two seats on the island and elect a more populist nominee than current Rep. Andrew Garbarino, who’s one of the most liberal Republicans.
Queens, Brooklyn, and the Bronx are deep blue areas that Trump made incredibly large gains in from 2012, especially in Hispanic and Asian communities. Trump received nearly 220,000 more votes in the three counties than Romney did, outpacing Democrats’ growth in Queens and the Bronx. Now, these counties will not be competitive on a national level anytime soon; GOP growth in the outer boroughs, especially in areas heavily impacted by inflation, crime, and education, will decide if any Republicans have a prayer on winning statewide.
Staten Island is the sole Republican bastion in New York City, and since 2012, it only got redder. While Obama won Richmond County by 4,000 votes during his re-election, Trump won it by over 32,000 votes just eight years later - the highest margin for any Republican since 1988. It is currently represented by Nicole Malliotakis, who could afford to become more populist in her voting record if she doesn’t get redistricted out of existence.
Westchester was once a Republican bastion in New York, but those days are gone forever. From 2012 to 2020, the GOP netted 1,600 new voters while Democrats outpaced them with 71,000. Even during the 2021 “red wave,” the GOP netted just one seat in the county legislature. The realignment of college-educated whites and the migration of black residents from New York City have doomed the chance of winning back this area.
The Western counties in the lower Hudson Valley, Rockland, and Orange have gone the opposite way of Westchester. With heavy growth from the Orthodox Jewish community and change among non-college-educated white voters, these areas may continue to move Republican though unlikely to be as populist.
The Poconos region of Pennsylvania, which includes Monroe, Luzerne, Lackawanna, and Carbon counties, have all seen tremendous growth for the GOP. In the 2020 election, Trump won Carbon county with the largest majority of any Republican ever, and other counties saw trends continue to grow since 2012. Trump won the region by 17,897 votes during his re-election, while Obama had a 39,165 victory margin over Romney. Over that eight-year period, Democrats netted 10,000 new voters, while Republicans gained 66,000. It’s the reason why Democrat Rep. Matt Cartwright is one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the House. This area is ground zero for the national populist movement and should be represented by a hardliner on trade, immigration, and war.
Passaic County, NJ is a Democrat stronghold, but from 2012 to 2020, the Republican nominee for President netted 27,500 votes while Democrats gained just 13,000 votes. The gains continued into 2021 when the Republican candidate for governor lost the county by only 4,300 votes compared to 21,000 in the prior gubernatorial election. With growing support from Latinos, this county shows promise for Republicans’ chance of winning an eventual statewide office in the Garden State.
South Jersey is becoming the bastion of populist conservatism in the state, fueled by ethnic whites, many of whom are not college-educated, leaving the Democrat party in droves. Not only did this area move towards Trump in the last two elections, but it was home to Republicans winning seven legislative seats last year. This area of New Jersey is home to two sitting Republicans, and both vote far to the left of the constituents they represent. South Jersey, like Long Island, could be home to populists, especially with retirees moving to Ocean County, which has seen the largest population growth in the state.
Philadelphia and its collar counties of Delaware, Montgomery, Bucks, and Chester represent a long-term problem for the GOP in the state. While the county of Philadelphia trended slightly red, with Republicans netting 21,000 more votes than Democrats from 2012 - 2020, the surrounding counties went through a series of blue waves. As college-educated whites move increasingly towards the woke faction of the Democrat Party, these counties, which are growing in population, make the state more challenging for the GOP. In 2012, Republicans lost this region by 123,327 votes, and by 2020 they lost it by 293,273 votes. In a state that gave Biden a victory by little over 80,000 votes, this area is a make or break for statewide candidates, especially given how most rural areas are shrinking in population.
Lancaster and York are the larger counties in the state and continue to grow in population, especially with the large Amish community accounting for 41 percent of all population growth in the last few years. In fact, despite being only seven percent of the population, they account for more than a third of births. Republicans have gained about 63,000 new Republican voters in these counties since 2012, while Democrats have netted about 42,000. While Lancaster is starting to turn more blue, as college-educated whites from the Philadelphia region and New York City have begun moving there, these two counties can help offset some of the deep blue votes coming out of the counties mentioned in the previous section. York is especially ideal for a more populist candidate, and if we can ever get the Amish to start voting in large enough numbers, this will be a solid red area forever.
Erie and Crawford county, home to about 330,000 people, was once a solidly Democrat area but have moved sharply to the right since 2016. Romney lost the region by about 12,000 votes in 2012, Trump won it by about 16,000 and 17,000 votes in 2016 and 2020, respectively. This area has since continued to track right; Erie elected its first Republican county executive in 20 years and could become a lock for the next GOP presidential candidate who champions the national populist agenda on trade, unions, opioids, and immigration.
Allegheny County, where Pittsburgh is located, and its surrounding counties of Beaver, Butler, Westmoreland, and Washington have the same extreme partisan divide found in most parts of the country. For example, Allegheny Democrats gained nearly 55,000 more votes than Republicans, while in the surrounding exurban white-working class areas, the GOP netted nearly 50,000 more votes than the Democrats. In addition, the surrounding suburbs have some heavy suburban areas that may not take to some of the national populist agenda and haven’t been as affected by deindustrialization as many other areas of the Rust Belt. Still, the issues of the opioid epidemic are deeply important to this community, which could result in electing more national populists than the Republicans that currently represent the districts surrounding Pittsburgh.
Maryland was once home to three Republican Congressmen, and by decades end, it will likely have none left. The state has moved far to the left and may end up being the most Democratic state in the union by 2030.
The Northern Virginia suburbs may have moved to the right for Glenn Youngkin in 2021, but don’t expect this to be reflected in upcoming federal elections. Due to a growth in government workers, military contractors, and mass immigration, the area that gave us Ken Cuccinelli is far out of reach for Republicans and national populists for most elections in the future.
