My Prediction for the Midterms
US House Edition
Let me start off by saying, I don’t like making predictions. I think it’s a fool errands because you can’t be correct 100 percent of the time but I’m going to use my political background and experience about elections to do my best for my subscribers. So here’s my breakdown of how the elections will turn out in the House of Representatives.
Many House districts are on a razors edge and I fully expect several races won’t be decided on election night, especially given how slow some states like New York and California are at counting votes. Many others will be decided by less than a point and could swing either way.
I am basing my prediction on fundraising, the quality of the candidate, individual polls, and the generic ballot.
Earlier on in the year, especially after the abortion decision in the Supreme Court, it was very likely that Republicans would win a bare majority. This would effectively give McCarthy little room and Democrats a very easy path to win it back in 2024. Since then however all political winds are breaking in Republican favor and by a decisive margin. Democrats attempt to make the entire election about abortion and democracy was incredibly stupid and spoke to a base of people that are too online or get their talking points from left-wing cable news hosts.
Now Republicans in the House and Senate have similar issues in this election cycle, while the political winds are moving in their favor, they’re competing in a lot of places that voted for Joe Biden. Senate Republicans are trying to flip seats in Colorado, Washington, and New Hampshire. House Republicans are in a similar situation because of both redistricting and the movement of suburban voters away from the GOP.
I think three things are happening at the same time:
Pollsters are under estimating the Republican turnout just like they have in nearly election since 2014.
Undecideds are breaking 2-to-1 in favor of Republicans. Their concerns about the economy, inflation, and crime are more important to them than democracy and abortion.
The red wave won’t hit everywhere. If Republicans are radically overperforming in some districts, it also means they’re underperforming in others. The red wave won’t hit every place equally.
Here is my election map of how I believe the results will shake out. Districts with darker color red or blue means either the Republican or Democrat won with a larger margin of the vote, lighter obviously means the seat is more competitive.