My Prediction for the Midterms

US Senate Edition

The hardest part of predicting elections is removing your partisan leanings from facts and data. Obviously fundraising and polling do not tell the whole story of how an election is going to flesh out, if that were true, we’d have President Jeb! or President Hillary in 2016. So I’m trying to marry the two, my own instinct with the facts on the ground and trying not to let my internal partisanship run wild.

For this post and the previous one on the House elections, I contacted more than a dozen consultants, campaign staffers, and local journalists who know more about individual races than I do and what’s happening on the ground.

So this is what I think will happen as of today but we could be in for a few surprises and in fact, I hope we are.