New Voters Are Older Than You Think

New Voters Are Mostly Old

One of the biggest errors people make when analyzing elections is assuming populations are pretty fixed. A particular candidate loses a state by a slim margin, which means they’re a shoo-in next time. This is certainly the thinking of many Trump supporters I’ve spoken to who think it’s only been four years; he can make up the 120,000 votes needed to flip enough key swing states to put him back in the White House.

While it’s true that Trump can win again, the states he’s vying for are not stagnant. Running for president more than once is like stepping into a river; it’s changed - voters move, turn 18, and die or fall off the radar and don’t care about politics anymore, and because of the post-COVID migration patterns, some states have changed more than others.

Millions of people who did not cast ballots in 2020 have already voted in this election, with states recording a very high number of new voter turnout. But new voters don’t always look like you think they would.