No, Trump Isn't Sinking Conservatives Around the Globe

A Very Stupid Narrative

This image is made with AI and is not real.

A narrative has formed among the pundit class that Donald Trump is not only toxic for Republicans running down ballot, but also with conservatives running across the globe. The election defeat of Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party in Canada and the center-right Liberal Party of Australia has only fed the idea that Trump’s toxicity has bled over to voters around the globe.

Now, while it is true that progressive and liberal candidates in many Anglosphere countries are running on a platform that they’re strong enough to take on Trump, it’s much more nuanced than what you’re going to hear on social media or cable news.

Let’s examine all the Western countries that have held elections since Donald Trump won his election last November and how populist and conservative candidates performed.

Irish General Election on November 29, 2024: Ireland has no real conservative party, but it’s important to note that two smaller populist parties, Independent Ireland and Aontú, gained five seats in the Dáil.

Romanian Parliamentary Election on December 1, 2024: The populist Alliance for the Union of Romanians had their best performance in history, coming in second place. Other nationalist and populist parties did very well.

German Parliamentary Elections on February 23, 2025: Probably the most controversial major political party in the West, the Alternative für Germany (AfD) scored a massive victory this winter. They came in second place for the first time, behind the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU). The CDU teamed up with the center-left political party to form a coalition, but adopted many policies championed by the AfD on immigration. Immediately after the government formed, the AfD surged to first place in many polls for the next election.

Austrian local elections, January 19th and April 27: Coming off their pre-Trump victory parliamentary elections in the fall, the national populist Freedom Party (FPO) came in first place. The FPO doubled its seats in the state of Burgerland, costing the center-left Social Democrat Party its absolute majority, and nearly tripled the seats it held in the liberal stronghold of Viennese state elections. They’re also polling in first place if the current coalition government collapses.

Liechtenstein Federal Election on February 9, 2025: I know this is a tiny country that few people think about, though they have fascinating politics. Nonetheless, I really wanted to hammer the point home that Trump being in office didn’t thwart populist and conservative parties because their populist party, the Democrats for Liechtenstein, won nearly 25 percent of the vote, their highest number ever.

Canadian Federal Election on April 28, 2025: The Canadian Liberal Party had a come-from-behind victory, winning a fourth term in power, and Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre lost his seat. Despite the loss, this was the best performance for any center-right party in Canada since 1988. The Liberal Party’s victory was due to the progressive New Democratic Party losing 71 percent of its seats, with many voting for the Liberals. The center-left French Canadian Bloc Québécois also lost much of its support, which went to the Liberals.

This election had more to do with Trump than others since he spoke about annexing the country and threatened to impose tariffs. The anti-Trump backlash, however, was fixated primarily on one group, Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation, who said their overwhelming concern was finding a leader who could deal with Donald Trump. Other age categories were more concerned with living costs and making housing more affordable.

The political realignment that changed American politics has hit Canada, with the Conservative Party winning 15 seats in districts that are at least 25 percent Southeast Asian. At the same time, the Liberals were victorious in lily-white, wealthy suburbs.

United Kingdom’s local elections on May 1: If any foreign politician is closely aligned with President Trump, it’s Reform UK’s Nigel Farage. The Brit has become a de facto Trump surrogate over the last decade, campaigning on many of the same themes in his own country. At the beginning of this month, he held his first primary contest since being elected to parliament last year.

While local elections are not the most important elections in the country, they are a good barometer for how the country feels about a host of issues, not to mention its governing class. For the first time in the nation’s history, the center-right Conservative Party and center-left Labour Party failed to come in either first or second place.

Farage’s Reform UK had a resounding victory, with the far-left Liberal Democrats in second place.

Reform UK won over 650 council seats, three mayorships, and a special election in a former safe Labour seat, totaling 30 percent of the vote.

The UK is set to hold local elections again next year, and Reform is already predicted to win hundreds more seats.

Australia’s Federal Election on May 3: Unlike the Canadian Conservative Party, Australia’s Liberal Party (their center-right party) never had that big a lead in the polls. There were a few times several months ago that their lead extended into double digits, but it was brief and fleeting. For the most part, it was a low single-digit lead.

Like most countries outside the U.S., Australia has two major parties, with minor parties holding some seats.

Overall, the Liberal Party won 32.17 percent of the popular vote, down 3.52 percent from the last election, while Labor won 34.79 percent, gaining 2.21 percent from the previous election.

Commentators heralding the “Trump Effect” failed to mention that several minor parties with conservative populist and national populist leanings did exceptionally well. The One Nation Party could not win any seats but received more than 6 percent of the vote, increasing their totals from the last election by 1.29 percent. A new party that was explicitly pro-Trump called Trumpet of Patriots (an absolutely terrible name) won nearly two percent of the vote. Another new party called Family First, which campaigned on social conservatism, received 1.7 percent. Another new right-wing party called People First also received half a percent.

In the same way Canada’s Liberal Party benefited from voters of smaller left-wing parties coalescing around it, Australia’s Liberal Party was hurt by smaller parties chipping away at its voting bloc because it wasn’t conservative or populist enough.

Did Trump have something to do with how some voters cast their ballots? Sure, there were probably some. Yet the media’s insistence on blaming Trump for everything from the weather to what side of the bed on.

The point isn’t to make American audiences more informed on international politics, it’s to feed liberals’ narcism that they’re more like our foreign counterparts who are much smarter and more cultured than Americans and are smart enough to reject Trumpism, even abroad… even if it’s not really happening.