NY Times Poll, is the Realignment Over?

Was Trump 2024 a Fluke?

There are a few things in life that online politicos and the mainstream media love more than a New York Times/Siena poll. The prestigious polling firm has its critics, but it’s more accurate more often than many other polls, so it deserves its flowers, as the kids say.

The poll had a lot of important data that I’ll address in the weekend newsletter, but one narrative is really taking hold: that Trump’s realignment in the 2024 election is over.

With his approval rating down pretty substantially, Trump’s seen a significant reversal in support from non-white voters and young voters. It seems like all the Joe Rogan bros are packing it in and ready to go home to the Democrats.

Young people of non-white backgrounds have indeed turned on Trump to a larger degree than older voters or midterm voters, but how do they feel about Republicans? Are they really ready to go back to the Democrats?

Using Pew Research exit polls from 2018 and 2024, you can see the immense growth Republicans enjoyed among these voters in the last couple of years.

In 2018, they won over Latinos by 47 points and young people by 49. Black voters hovered around 90 percent in support of Democrats.

Pew found that by 2024, Trump’s numbers with black voters fell below a 70-point deficit, he lost Latinos by only three points, and 18-29 year olds moved seven points to the right from 2020.

So, what does The New York Times say about those voters ahead of the 2026 midterms? Have they reverted back to 2018 numbers now that Trump’s in office?

According to The New York Times/Siena poll, Democrats hold a 5-point generic ballot advantage, 48 to 43.

A solid lead for Democrats, but among key demographics, they aren’t at the 2018 or 2020 levels.

• Democrats lead 18-29-year-olds by 27 points, down 22 points from 2018.

• Democrats lead 30-44-year-olds by 12 points, down 9 points from 2018.

• Democrats lead among black voters by 55 points, down 31 points from 2018.

• Democrats lead among Hispanics by 16 points, down 31 points from 2018.

• Republicans lead among white voters by 7 points, up 1 point from 2018.

• Republicans lead among men by 6 points, up 8 points from 2018.

• Democrats lead among women by 16 points, down 2 points from 2018.

• Democrats lead among whites with a college degree by 21 points, up 3 points from 2018.

• Republicans lead among whites without a college degree by 26 points, up about 1 point from 2018.

Once again, these are good numbers for Democrats; there’s no denying that if the election were held today, they’d almost certainly win back the House of Representatives. However, these are not 2018 numbers in the crosstabs, not among Latinos, blacks, or young people.

They’re much closer to 2020 numbers. Also, a good year for Democrats, but it showed that part of the change we experienced in the last year isn’t going away.

Maybe 2024 was the ceiling for Republican support among specific demographics, but the floor is also much higher than it used to be.