Polling Before the Debate
Where the Election Stands
“The debate doesn’t matter, right?” a television producer asked me.
“The Biden vs. Trump debate wasn’t supposed to matter until Biden was forced out after he said he defeated Medicaid,” I replied.
I believe the stakes are high before the election because it is so close, and either of the candidates could win. A surge of minority and youth support could tip swing states like Georgia and Wisconsin to Kamala, while enough low-propensity voters could put the wind in Trump’s sails and carry him to a second term.
That said, I think Trump is the favorite to win this election.
For those who don’t know me, I try not to let my personal bias get in the way of my assessments in the election. I believed Trump was going to win in 2016 but lose in 2020. I very publicly got the 2022 election wrong when I overpredicted a Republican victory in several Senate races like Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Nevada.
So here’s why I think Trump is the favorite based on the polling.