So the Polls Are All In
Well, it’s over. Not the election, but all the major polls nationally and in the swing states are in, and there’s a lot to review.
According to Voter Hub, which ranks just A+ to B- rated polls, Trump has a solid lead in Florida, Texas, and Arizona. He leads Nevada by a point and Georgia and North Carolina by half a point. Harris has a solid lead in Virginia and New Hampshire, a 1.6 percent lead in Michigan, a point in Wisconsin, and just 0.2 percent in Pennsylvania. If all of these were accurate, Harris would win the election 270 to 268.
The New York Times collection of polls, which includes less esteemed polls, has Trump leading by a point or more in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona and less than a point in Pennsylvania and Nevada. Harris has a lead of less than a point in Michigan and Wisconsin. If all of these are accurate, Trump would win with 286 electoral college votes.
So what does that tell us? This election is as close as any since 2000.
As Nate Silver points out, so many polls have been painfully close, to such a degree that the chances of all these swing states being this close are about 1 in 9.5 trillion.
There are two prevailing polling narratives: one favors Democrats, and the other favors Republicans. So, let’s look at both of them.