Team Trump's Low Propensity Voter Strategy
Why It's a Good Strategy
Only seven states (Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada) will decide the next president of the United States. The chances of a red Virginia or blue Texas seem about as likely as waterless toilets becoming popular.
The polls show a near-dead even race between Trump and Harris in nearly every swing state, and a strong ground game will be essential. NBC News has reported that the Trump campaign is working with outside groups, including Turning Point Action, America First Works, and America PAC, an Elon Musk-aligned super PAC, to help drive its ground efforts. This joint effort came as the Federal Election Commission decided earlier this year to allow campaigns and outside groups to work more closely on voter turnout efforts. Though full coordination is not permitted, the ruling allowed this less-regulated money to play a much more significant role in this space.
Low-propensity voters are a significant group to Trump. Multiple polls show that Trump’s winning infrequent voters of all races.
This is especially true of whites without a college degree, who vote less frequently in most elections than any other group aside from recent immigrants.
According to NBC News, voter turnout by demographic groups broke down as follows:
Whites with a college degree: 72 percent turnout
Blacks: 57 percent turnout
Whites without a college degree: 55 percent turnout
Asians and others: 46 percent turnout
Hispanics: 45 percent turnout
Trump will likely continue to receive support from college-educated whites while gaining some decent new voters from minorities. Yet this increase alone cannot make the difference needed for a Republican victory.