The Clinton 16'/Trump 24' and Trump 16'/Harris 24' Districts
What They Tell Us
A lot has changed since Trump’s first bid to enter the White House nine years ago. Countless articles have been written about the Trump coalition, which is creating a new dynamic that could benefit Republicans long into the future.
For all that analysis, though, few congressional districts have changed since 2016. Part of that is due to redistricting—some swing districts in places like New Jersey, North Carolina, Texas, and Illinois were redrawn to protect incumbents in both parties. It also speaks to how bifurcated our country is politically; people choose to live around people who vote overwhelmingly like each other. Sure, some districts had big swings towards Republicans or Democrats, but not enough in most cases where they flipped in one direction or another.
Using the House districts as they’re currently drawn, only 20 seats have flipped in one direction or another since 2016.
A few came close, like Pennsylvania’s 1st, but no cigar.
So here’s a list of the 20 districts that flipped, 15 towards Republicans and five towards Democrats, and what they could mean.