The Next Swing District

Where Republicans Can Make Gains in 2026 and 2028

I usually write a full newsletter covering the most critical news about right-wing nationalism and populism throughout the week. Unfortunately, I have been sick with a disabling cold for the last few days.

So, I apologize to subscribers. I usually never skip a newsletter, but I couldn’t function for the last few days.

Instead, here’s a shorter but important piece I’ve been working on regarding future swing congressional districts that I hope you’ll enjoy. I understand many of you want me to produce posts more frequently, so I’ll try to do more frequent short posts in the future. Anyway, the newsletter will be back next Sunday; until then, I hope you enjoy this post.

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Cook Political, a political forecasting website, released its list of competitive House seats in 2026. I generally agreed with their analysis, but I started thinking about future swing seats. These are seats that Republicans don’t even invest in but have seen tremendous movement toward Trump in the last few elections.

So, looking at 2026 and beyond, here is a list of Democratic districts that are not considered competitive today but will be in the near future if trends continue.

There are 15 districts, many with large working-class Hispanic populations, that began realigning away from Democrats in 2020 and made a full-speed run in 2024. While the House races were not competitive in the last cycle, it’s because Republicans had not invested in any of these races, believing they were out of reach.

As the political realignment continues, here are the seats you can expect to see a chart of swing districts.

Here’s a deeper look at the districts and why I think they’ll eventually flip.