Trump is Closer to Winning Biden States, than Biden is to Winning Trump States

We'll See if the Conviction and Debate Changes Anything

In the upcoming weeks, we’ll hear a lot about Trump’s conviction and how it will affect the polls. However, we have very little data outside of internet polls to show anything, so I’m not going to navel gaze about what will happen.

Personally, I have never met anyone who had a strong opinion on the trial and conviction and didn’t already know how they planned on voting. Could it upset and change the minds of undecided voters, maybe? But to paraphrase comedian Bill Maher, “I assumed Donald Trump was paying off pornstars he was sleeping with.” No one assumed that Trump was living the life of a cloistered nun before running for president.

So far, three internet polls are showing how people’s votes have changed:

Forbes/Harvard Harris: Trump 51, Biden 49

Echelon Insights: Biden 49, Trump 47 (from Trump and Biden tied at 47)

Reuters/Ipsos: Biden 41, Trump 39 (from a tied poll at 40)

None of these are high-quality polls; they don’t include RFK Jr., and there isn’t anything really we can really dig into. So, until then, there’s no point in getting too excited.

So, rather than giving a dozen examples of what could be, I want to highlight something interesting that few pundits have noticed. Organizations focusing on predictions and analysis finds that Trump and down-ballot Republicans are much closer to winning blue states and districts than Biden and Democrats are to winning red states and districts.