Trump's Second First 100 Days
What the polls really say
On this week’s podcast episode of “A Numbers Game,” I had on the fantastic journalist Marc Caputo to discuss Trump’s first 100 days and what polls say about Americans’ feelings.
During the podcast, I discussed the three topics that most defined Trump’s second 100 days, especially in the eyes of the media: DOGE, immigration, and tariffs. More than any other, these three issues became the center of the narrative around the Trump Administration and, for a time, made the front page of every newspaper and website in the country.
Now, I recorded this podcast on Friday, so of course, over the weekend, a flurry of new polls came out, so some of the polls mentioned in this substack were not included in my analysis in the podcast.
One last caveat about which polls I decided to use was that I picked polls that give access to the crosstabs, which allowed me to make a detailed analysis that included how key demographics feel about Trump. I know many people don’t like to analyze crosstabs, but that’s nonsense, crosstabs are sexy. I also avoided pollsters that I don’t respect.
Looking at the average of all the major pollsters, you can see a significant drop around April 1st, or as Trump called it, “Liberation Day.”
Before the day he rolled out his plans to launch tariffs against the entire globe, Trump’s favorable/unfavorable margin was in the negatives, but not by much, around two to three points in the overall average. Then the tariff rollout happened, fears of recession spiked, and his poll numbers slumped.
I want to note that some of Trump’s best poll numbers come from the best pollsters of the 2024 election - Quantus Insights and Atlas Intel, so keep an eye out for that.
So these poll numbers are not great; there’s no way to make it sound better than what it is. People believe that a recession is on the horizon, prices will increase, and they will lose their jobs. Fear of economic fallout has only worsened because of the narratives coming out of mainstream and alternative media - some accurate, others not. Another thing driving this is intense partisanship, which I’ll explain in the crosstabs below.
Polls don’t all have the same available crosstabs, which explains the blank spaces, but here are some things that stand out.
The two most accurate pollsters of the last election cycle (Quantus Insights and Atlas Intel) have Trump in a significantly better position than the rest. Examining the crosstabs, it’s easy to see where their results differ from the rest:
Double-digit higher support among Republicans:
Quantus and Atlas have Trump’s margin of support among Republicans as +85 points, about 15 points higher than all other pollsters. I tend to believe they’re right and Trump’s support among Republicans is higher than other pollsters believe.
Double-digit higher support among Independents
Some of these pollsters have absolutely ridiculous numbers among independents. The idea that Trump is down 35-47 points with a demographic he lost by three points just a few months ago seems absurd. I think the polls have shifted, and economic worries have soured this group with Trump, but it’s nowhere near the numbers some of these polls estimate. Remember, independents are difficult to poll because most vote almost entirely for Republicans or Democrats but refuse to align themselves with a party.
A much higher level of support among Hispanics
The 2024 election made history for Republicans as they gained significant support from Hispanic voters. Trump managed to win several Latino-majority counties, and many analysts believed it was the start of a slow change to a new multiracial working-class Republican party. Then these new polls came out showing that Trump is back to where he started, especially with news about mass deportation and fears that the economy could tank. It would seem odd, but not impossible, still, I’d be more likely to think that Hispanics are closer to the Atlas/Quantus numbers than the overall mean. It’s especially telling that Trump’s support for black voters among all polls reflects the realignment that happened in 2024, while the numbers for Hispanics show that they went back to where they were in 2020 or before.
Trump’s numbers are down—there’s no way of denying that—but the question is just how far down and how much they can swing back if the economy shows no signs of slowing down and the market slowly recovers. Time will tell, but he desperately needs good economic news by late summer and early fall.
This week, I’ll write another post about the policies based on these polls and what they could mean for the 2026 midterms. Be sure to subscribe to read more detailed analysis.
It's always about the economy. Unlike other metrics, people see what gas costs, what groceries cost and most importantly how well stocked store shelves are. They know if they have a job and if their wages are keeping up with inflation. People have bad memories of covid and if they start seeing layoffs and shortages of everyday items that's going to leave a mark.
Trump has taken a massive gamble with the trade war and put all his chips on being able to simultaneously lower prices, re-shore broad-based manufacturing (it's not just about cars) and keep the stock market climbing. Time will tell if this is possible but I have my doubts.
I disagree with Ryan that Trump has until the end of the summer/early fall to get this situation straightened out. I'm thinking massive fallout may already be obvious by Memorial Day or July 4th at the latest. The American people are not known for patience and while his base may be propping up his numbers I think erosion in that group is teetering on the edge as we speak.