Why I Said Trump Can't Win

The Data Behind My Opinion

Last week, I appeared on the Buck Sexton podcast and said I believed Donald Trump could not win the presidency if he were the Republican nominee. The clip was seen by a reasonably large audience on social media. Here’s the link to the show if you want to listen.

Many people asked me to break down the data to explain further why I feel this way, so here goes.

The first point I want to make clear is that this is an educated assessment based on today's information. A lot can change in terms of the state of the country (if there’s an economic recession) and the candidates (if Trump gets any more indictments or either candidate’s age prevents them from running.)

So first, let’s start with the state of the race and how any Republican can get the 270 electoral votes.

Republicans start with about 235 electoral votes, with the only potential swing states they could lose in 2024 that Trump won in 2020 is North Carolina and Maine’s Second Congressional District.

Yet even with those states, they need to win Arizona, Wisconsin, and Georgia or Pennsylvania or Georgia or Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Arizona. Long shots like Nevada, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire could go red in a great year. However, it is unlikely that a Republican is going to win a combination of those states without winning any of the other four. If they pick up Nevada or Michigan, it likely means they also won in Arizona or Wisconsin.

So that’s the electoral college vote, but here’s an estimate of what the electorate will look like based on previous elections.

Whites were 72 percent of the vote in 2012, 70 percent in 2016, and 67 percent in 2020. They’ll likely be between 64-65 percent in 2024.

Blacks were 13 percent of the vote in 2012, 12 percent in 2016, and 13 percent again in 2020. They’ll likely be 12-13 percent in 2024.

Hispanics were 10 percent of the vote in 2012, 11 percent in 2016, and 13 percent in 2020. They’ll likely be between 14-15 percent in 2024.

Asians were 3 percent of the vote in 2012, 4 percent in 2016, and 4 percent again in 2020. They’ll likely be about 5 percent in 2024.

Trump’s secret sauce in 2016 came from a depressed showing of black voters, especially in some major cities in the Rust Belt, massive destain for Hillary Clinton among key Democrat voting groups, and a large chunk of voters favoring third party candidates over Clinton. He also won with the benefit of winning a larger share of non-college educated whites than even Ronald Reagan won in 1984.